Showing posts with label EU crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EU crisis. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Greece: here we go again!

The never-ending greek tragedy (now with 35% more lively riots!) reaches new doomsday scenarios every passing week, without a definitive outcome. Every now and then appears a bigwig telling us on TV how white this new debt agreement can be (this time, for real). Well, he can’t be telling the truth, because:

Austerity measures don’t work in a dead economy, like Greece’s is, and greeks won’t freely accept new third – world standard living conditions; even knowing that the welfare state is no longer sustainable.
• Prodigality must end, but with an agreement on fundamentals. Otherwise the malcontents will always end in “soak the rich” demagoguery (counting with the silly notion that the Onassis crew will stay much longer in Greece to watch it burn). Ever notice how pensions and entry – level bureaucrats’ wages are cut, but never parliamentarians’, ministers’ and the like? "Everyone gets a haircut or no soup for you!", should be the motto of the new Greek survivalist social contract.
• Not even Somalis like to be treated like a bunch of ignorant troglodytes. The Greek Nation must have screwed it the big time as a whole, but you don’t need to be a political scientist to perceive the humiliation feeling clouding over Athens and the rest of the country. Angela Merkel’s face expression seems to say: “Eat those damn vegetables now!” Not funny, if you're the kid.
• Maybe a debt ratio of almost 150% of the GDP is not payable at all. By definition, they should surrender their entire economy and then work for free to produce another half of the given up GDP and hand it to their debtors.

Regarding this last statement, finally the EU senior partners are finally having it: Talks of a disorderly default are beginning to appear in the press. Greeks could find themselves left to their own devices.

But being still members of the eurozone? Still clinging to the EU? The EU senior partners are so invested in the success of the Euro experiment that they would take Greece’s departure as an unspeakable defeat. But they don’t feel cozy with the idea of supporting a bunch of “freeloaders” that won’t surrender their fiscal sovereignty for the rescue of their self – ruined economy, either.


There are still options, but a lot of pride on both sides, too. No satisfaction.
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Friday, January 13, 2012

European Union or: how I learned to stop worrying and love the pensions bomb

No way out...?
You hear that Mr. Anderson?... That is the sound of inevitability... It is the sound of your death...

Agent Smith, The Matrix

It seems some people loathe my pal Agent P because he doesn’t like public servants that well. And we both dislike how governments recklessly spend our tax money. The #OccupyWallStreet movement protests the obvious carelessness of the incredibly short-termed mind of the current business model, sheltered by government old chums (They just don’t see that way). People good, corporate greed bad, we know that song.

Ever thought of government greed? Or public “servants” greed? You think that does not exist? Lookit shorty here: this Friday the 13th of January, Standard & Poor's will cut the credit ratings of Italy, Spain and Portugal by two notches and downgrade France and Austria by one notch. Yes, just like the USA were downgraded last year.

But didn’t Merkozy grab the bull by the horns and drove into submission the unruly PIGS? Didn’t France and Germany send the right signals to the markets? Apparently not. There are a lot of people not buying the White Knight rescue fairytale. You see, there’s some information that’s not a secret at all, but European politicians prefer not to talk about, because of the election cycle, they are as short-term minded as those ugly Wall Street capitalists.

Because of that it is a downright horror story, not a fairy tale what the Europeans prefer not to face: the state-funded pension obligations in France and Germany are three times the GDP of those two countries. Together they total 13.9 trillion Euros, very nearly half of the pension bills of the 19 nation States studied in this 2009 report of the Research Center for Generational Contracts from the Freiburg University.

Expert used to call that mess “the retirement bomb.” Sooner or later the public will realize that the lavish public employee pensions and most of the rest of the perks of the welfare state are impossible to meet by taxpayers. It has nothing to do with wealth redistribution; the pension liabilities exceed three times the GDP of two of the most stable and wealthiest states of the European Union. In three decades, there will be no wealth to be redistributed. Same goes for the PIGS and everyone else in the Union. Same goes for Medicare and Social Security in the USA.

If that’s not greed, to mortgage several times the future of their countries to satisfy public employees demands, then the definition must be changed.

The future is already here. After all, Greece and several other countries already spend way more than they earn.

Most of us will worry when we hear the downgrade news. But when they find out the bigger picture, they will consider this nothing compared with what lies beneath the abyss of the welfare state.


Keynes said “In the long term we all be dead”, but if he were alive today he would say “Who, me?”

H/T The Slog
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